Screen Actors Guild Awards are the awards which kickstart the Oscar season with their nominations. This year with so many different (read female character based) films competing in different categories, there has been no clear frontrunner in the Oscar race. And with Revenant, Joy and hateful Eight not having released for public, it has become even harder. All this increases the importance of SAG awards this year.
SAG Awards are noticed every year, but after 2 years of continuously being able to predict all Oscar winners correctly- this year SAG is like a mini Oscar in itself. Both Oscars and SAG nominate 20 actors in four categories: best actor and actress and best supporting actor and actress.
Oscar nominees are determined by Academy members- actors nominate other actors, and film editors nominate other film editors. The pool of actors who nominate other actors for acting awards is quite similar in both Oscars and SAG, so the nominees tend to line up with those at the Oscars.
But how accurate are the SAG Awards? I decided to go through the last 5 years of nomination data available and crosscheck if they also got Oscar Nominations. Here are the results.
1. BEST ACTOR
As we can see the last 5 year winners of both SAG and Oscars are the same. As far as nominations are concerned, atleast 4 out of 5 are correct each year. So yes, we can say Best Actor category is predicted well by SAG.
2. BEST ACTRESS
Again last 5 years show, only on one ocassion did the SAG miss out on being correct. But even that year, Viola was clearly said to be winning, only that Academy voters thought of finally honoring Meryl with her 3rd Oscar after 19 years. SO it was more of a honorary thing rather than a note on acting capabilities.
Nomination wise SAG has done quite well, predicting with 80% accuracy.
3. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
So the SAG went wrong once in the last 5 years when they did not even nominate Christopher Waltz for Inglorious Bastards, who went on to win the Oscars. Other than this mistake, the nomination accuracy is much better with 100% accuracy in 2 of the last 5 years.
4. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Even in highly competitive years like in 2014, when Jlaw and Lupita were head to head, SAG did predict the winners correctly. its track record for nominations is even better with 100% in one year and 80% in rest.
Whereas the best picture is concerned, SAG does not give out a Best Picture award, instead it gives A Best Ensemble Cast award, which is usually won by a future Best picture nominee. Past winners have included Best Picture Winners like The artist, Argo, American Hustle and Boyhood.
Hence we have seen in the 4 acting categories, 4/5 SAG nominees will definitely be there up at the Oscar nominations on 14th Jan as well. The 5th place will be open for fight and lobbying. SAG nominations wil clear a lot of uncertainty in the acting categories. Just look at this photo- All of them were Oscar/Emmy winners also.
The SAG Nominations will be announced today, 9th December at 10 a.m. (ET) / 7 a.m. (PT). It is 18:30 in the evening for Indian users. Tune into http://www.sagawards.tntdrama.com/ where you can watch the nominations live. The actual award ceremony takes place on 30th January, a month before the Oscars.
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