OSCARS 2014- Early predictions for Best Picture nominees of 2014

With the 2013 Oscars over, it’s time to immediately start thinking about the 2014 Oscars! This is more the norm after Toronto and almost never before Cannes. Still today here we try to see which films currently under production might grab a spot on the most coveted nominations list, to be announced in January 2015.

PROBABALE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES OF 2015-

1. FOXCATCHER(Sony Pictures Classics, TBA)

Bennett Miller, whose previous two films "Capote" and "Moneyball" were both nominated for best picture is back with "Foxcatcher.
This was supposed to come out last year but got pushed back to 2014. Steve Carrell gained weight and caked on makeup to play psychotic millionaire/convicted murder John du Pont, & Channing Tatum called his role of Mark Shultz his “hardest acting challenge,” and the trailer is pretty moving.

Chances of Nomination- 8/10

2. GONE GIRL(20th Century Fox, October)

After Argo, every film with Ben Affleck is Oscar material(No, not Batman vs Superman). And Two-time best director nominee David Fincher ("The Social Network" and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") is directing this Gillian Flynn's extremely popular novel of the same name. No one does a dark crime thriller like Fincher, and the hype is just going to grow as more and more people make sure they read the book before the movie comes out.

Chances of Nomination- 9/10

3. INHERENT VICE(Warner Bros., December)

Paul Thomas Anderson's the director of "There will be Blood" and "The Master" is directing Inherent Vice. Jaquin Phoenix, with 2 back to back multiple nominees films(The Master and Her)is donning the 70s look as you can see in the picture. And releasing it in December means the producers are sure that this is Oscar worthy.

Chances of Nomination- 9/10

4. THE SEARCH

Anyone who says that they saw the awards success of "The Artist" coming a year in advance is a liar: even the filmmakers were probably a bit shocked it went as far as it did. So the follow-up from director Michel Hazanavicius, and star Bérénice Bejo, probably doesn't have the same element of surprise on its side.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10


5. BIG EYES

No Tim Burton movie has ever earned a Best Picture nomination, or indeed Best Director. But maybe 2014 is his year. Big Eyes narrates the true-life tale of Walter Keane, who became a celebrity for his paintings of large-eyed children, only for it to emerge that his wife Margaret was the real artist behind them. With a lot of Oscar-friendly names involved including five-time nominee Amy Adams as Margaret and two-time winner Christoph Waltz as Walter and The Weinstein Company backing it, I don't see it not getting a nomination.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10


6. A MOST VIOLENT YEAR

This latest from JC Chandor, who was snubbed this past year for "All Is Lost" in the 2013 ceremony is a 1981-set crime tale involving an immigrant (Oscar Isaac) and his wife (Jessica Chastain) trying to create opportunities for their family during the most crime-ridden year in New York. While I am sure Jessica CHastain will get her Best actress nomination for this, if this manages to get best picture nod is something to wait and watch.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10


7. INTERSTELLAR(Paramount, November)

Do I really need to tell you why it's here. Probably the most awaited film of 2014 this also has an awards-friendly cast: recent winners Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway are the leads, with Jessica Chastain, Michael Caine, Matt Damon, Casey Affleck and Ellen Burstyn among those supporting. It might be that its sci-fi origins prove a problem, but "Gravity" certainly helped to break down some of those barriers. But among Nolan's films only "Inception" has managed a Best Picture slot, and the filmmaker himself
has never picked up a Best Director nod. Still this looks promising.

Chances of Nomination- 7/10


8. THE IMITATION GAME (Weinstein Company, Late 2014)

Based on a Black List-winning script, it tells the story of Alan Turing, who helped to crack the Enigma code and invent the modern computer before being hounded by the British government for his homosexuality—it's the stuff that Oscar glory is often made of. Benedict Cumberbatch has the lead role, with Keira Knightley, Matthew Goode and Mark Strong among those in support. The Weinstein Company hopes to revenge their shameful year at oscars 2013 with this. Hope this doesn't turn out to be a Fifth Estate.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10

9. WILD

Dallas Buyers Club was no where in the scene for best picture race and it got 6 nominations and 2 major wins, so its wise to keep track of director Jean-Marc Vallée's next. Reese WItherspoon hoping to reinvent her career like Matthew McConaghay plays a woman who, after the death of her mother and break-up of her marriage, decides to trek her way along 1,000 miles of the Pacific Crest Trail. It promises the kind of mix of stunning landscapes and a powerful central performance that can be very awards-friendly

Chances of Nomination- 5/10

10.UNBROKEN

Angleina Jolie as the director means the film will be in the news for the full year. But just a year after Brad Pitt wins best producer, I can't see Angelina being nominated. And this is trying too hard as we saw at the Oscars this year. Still patriotic real stories are always Oscar worthy.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10


11. TRASH

Stephen Daldry has only made 4 films. "Billy Elliot" "The Hours" "The Reader" and "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close". And these 4 films have seen 6 nominations(3 times best Director, 3 times Best Film). So it is obvious why his latest film is here. Story of three children in Rio De Janeiro who discover a mysterious object in the rubbish mounds of the city with a sprinkling of star power in the shape of co-stars Rooney Mara and Martin Sheen this is all set if it turns good.

Chances of Nomination- 6/10

OTHERS

This category includes those films which might not make the cut due to various reasons. Still chances are some of these might exceeds expectations and get into the awards buzz despite their shortcomings. So better keep track of these.

1. INTO THE WOODS

Although releasing on Christmas as Wolf of Wall Street this year, it might not make the cut being perceived as too mainstream. With a cast that boasts of Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp and Emily Blunt, it's still capable of landing itself good acting nominations. Sure to get Nomination no. 19 for Meryl.

Chances of Nomination- 2/10


2. THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL

None of the previous films of Wes Anderson have managed a nod. Not even Moonrise Kingdom. That is why I don't see this getting either. And a film releasing just after the awards season has ended must not have high hopes for next year. But with impeccable reviews and a spot of 127 on IMDB top 250 this film will be the underdog for next year.

Chances of Nomination- 3/10

3. SUFFRAGETTE

A film about the early feminist movement in the UK that is written and directed by women starring an almost all-female cast including the likes of Carey Mulligan, Helena Bonham Carter and Meryl Streep. But this might not be able to release by 2014.

Chances of Nomination- Might not release in 2014

4. Suite Franchise

Michelle williams always does critically acclaimed films(with the exception of Oz). This film set during the early years of German occupation of France, romance blooms between Lucile Angellier, a French villager and Bruno von Falk, a German soldier. A best actress nod is sure.

Chances of Nomination- 3/10

5. Exodus



Christian Bale plays Moses. Will it make the cut? Mostly No. Unless it is the next Gladiator. But one thing is certain. It will earn huge money.

Chance of Nomination- 2/10

6. Mr Turner

Mike Leigh who almost always seems to get a screenplay nomination(7 time Oscar nominee) could finally win with this film, a biographical account of the British artist of the same name. But best picture looks hard.

Chance of Nomination- 2/10

7. Get On Up

The director of The Help "Tate Taylor" is reteaming with his former cast members Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer for James Brown-adaptation "Get On Up" that stars "42" breakout Chadwick Boseman as Brown. The film will give a fearless look inside the music, moves and moods of James Brown, taking audiences on the journey from his impoverished childhood to his evolution into one of the most influential figures of the 20th century.

Chance of Nomination- 4/10

8. Jersey Boys
Clint Eastwood is directing again. And trailer looks good. Mostly will find audience but not awards.

Obviously this is not an exhaustive list. There will be smaller films, indies like Beasts of the Southern Wild which might get the buzz for the awards. Also there will be some foreign films like The Amour which might surprise even their own country with a Best Picture Nomination. We might end up with a winner like 2009's The Hurt Locker or 2011's Artist, both of which no one could predict a year ago even as nominees. But then maybe 2014 might be one of those years like 2012's Argo or last year's 12 Years a slave which was Oscar material, the day they were announced. We will have to wait and watch. See you at the Oscars 2015.

INDIAN LOK SABHA ELECTIONS SINCE 1947

Since the Tryst with Destiny speech by Jawaharlal Nehru on 15th August 1947, Congress was the major political force driving Indian politics. Until 1967 Congress never won less than 73% of the total seats the Parliament. There were 4 factors that determined such a remarkable accomplishment.
1. Tremendous amount of good will and political capital from its leadership of the nationalist struggle. Congress leaders were very popular for the years spent in jail and the hardships suffered by them for independence.
2. Congress was the only party with an organization extending across the nation and down to the village level. The party's federal structure was based on a system of internal democracy that functioned to resolve disputes among its members and maintain party cohesion
3. Congress had its reach till the most remote villages, often by local heads of the villages who controlled the way the village was going to vote
4. It had plenty of funds thanks to support from influential people and also due to total control of government and policies uninterrupted from 1947-1967

1st Lok Sabha (1952):

Some congress leaders started forming their own parties well before the 1st lok sabha elections. While Shyama Prasad Mookerjee went on to found the Jana Sangh in October 1951, Dalit leader B. R. Ambedkar revived the Scheduled Castes Federation (which was later named the Republican Party). Despite all this, The Indian National Congress (INC) won 364 of the 489 seats and 45% of the total votes polled, over four times as many as the second-largest party. Jawaharlal Nehru became the first democratically elected Prime Minister of the country. Voter turnout was 45.7%. Scheduled Caste leader and the creator of the constitution B. R. Ambedkar was defeated in the Bombay constituency.

2nd Lok Sabha(1957)

The Indian National Congress managed to replicate its 1952 success story in the second Lok Sabha elections held in 1957. The INC managed to win 296 seats from a total of 490 candidates who were in the political fray. The party also secured 47.78 per cent majority winning a total of 57,579,589 votes. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru came back to power with a comfortable majority. No part had fielded a woman candidate in the 1957 elections

3rd Lok Sabha(1962)

In the past 10 years Jawaharlal Nehru had with his charismatic brilliance led India to new heights. Parliament under Nehru passed reforms to increase legal rights of women in Hindu society and legislated against caste and untouchability, IITs were founded during his regime. Nehru advocated a socialist model for the economy of India — no taxation for Indian farmers, minimum wage and benefits for blue-collar workers. He nationalised heavy industries such as steel, aviation, shipping, electricity and mining and brought about an Industrial revolution. Many dams, canals were also built. The best examples of Nehru’s policies are his Non Aligned movement and The 5 year plans followed till this day. In 1961, after continual petitions for a peaceful handover, India invaded and annexed the Portuguese colony of Goa on the west coast of India.

With all this Congress again repeated a landslide victory winning 361 of the 494 seats with 44% vote share.
But Nehru’s China policy of “hindi chini bhai bhai” backfired and China declared war claiming parts of Kashmir in October 1962. With superior armed forces, China won and till date has control of Aksai Chin region of Kashmir. Widely criticised for his government's insufficient attention to defense, Nehru was forced to sack the then defense minister Krishna Menon and accept U.S. military aid. Soon Nehru’s health was on a decline and he died on May 27, 1964 of a heart attack. Veteran Congress leader Gulzarilal Nanda succeeded Nehru at his death for a period of two weeks. Congress chose Lal Bahadur Shastri as the new Prime Minister. In 1965 in the Second Kashmir War India and Pakistan again went to war over Kashmir, but no border agreement could be reached. To end the war The Tashkent Agreement was signed under the mediation of the Soviet government, but Shastri died mysteriously on the night after the signing ceremony on Jan 10, 1966. Again Guzarilal Nanda became Prime Minister for a period of two weeks.
The last 2 years had seen the death of 2 Prime Ministers of India. After Lal Bahadur Shastri’s death in 1966, Congress had no leader. It was divided into 2 factions, the Socialists which supported Indira Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru's daughter who had been serving as Minister for Information and Broadcasting and Moderates which supported Morarji Desai. Rammanohar Lohia called Indora a “Gungi gudiya” (Mute Doll). Due to support from Nehru’s faithful leaders Indira became the new Prime minister and led Congress to the 4th Lok Sabha elections in 1967.

4th Lok sabha (1967) - Rise Of Indira Gandhi

The halcyon days of what Indian political scientist Rajni Kothari has called "the Congress system" ended with the general elections in 1967. The reasons for Congress’s failure included the failure of the monsoons in 1965 and 1966 leading to hardships throughout northern and eastern India, and the unpopular currency devaluation in 1966. The rapid growth of the electorate, which increased by 45 percent from 1952 to 1967, brought an influx of new voters less appreciative of the Congress's role in the independence movement. There were also newer regional parties which had regional support.
Congress' internal crisis stared at its face in the results of the 1967 elections. For the first time, it lost nearly 60 seats in the Lower House, managing to win 283 seats. Until 1967, the grand old party had also never won less than 60 per cent of all seats in Assembly elections. It also suffered a major setback as Non-congress State governments were established in Bihar, Kerala, Orissa, Madras, the Punjab and West Bengal.
Among all this, Indira Gandhi, elected to the Lok Sabha from Rai Bareili constituency, was sworn in as the Prime Minister. In order to keep dissident voices at bay, she appointed Morarji Desai, who had opposed her candidature as PM after Nehru's death, as Deputy Prime Minister of India and Finance Minister of India.
Indira Gandhi was dismayed by congress’s performance in these elections and decided to take the party in the populist direction. She ordered the nationalization of India's fourteen largest banks in 1969. And then she supported former labor leader and Acting President Varahagiri Venkata Giri's candidacy for president despite the fact that the party organization had already nominated the more conservative Neelam Sanjiva Reddy. The veteran Congress leaders saw this as an insult to them and expelled Indira Gandhi from Congress and began looking for a new Prime Minister.
But 226 of the 283 Congress MPs still supported Indira. With these Indira Gandhi formed a new party called Congress (R)--for Requisition and the older Congress was called Congress (O)- for Organisation. The Congress (R) continued in power with the support of non-Congress groups, principally the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK--Dravidian Progressive Federation). But Indira not wanting to lead a minority government called for elections one full year before in 1971 instead of 1972.

5th Lok sabha elctions(1972)

With the Congress (O) controlling most of the party organization, Indira Gandhi adopted a new strategy to mobilize popular support. Mrs Gandhi travelled throughout the country, energetically campaigning on the slogan "garibi hatao " (eliminate poverty), thereby bypassing the traditional Congress networks of political support.
She won 352 seats, a remarkable improvement from the 283 of the last elections.
Indira Gandhi was soon staring at a newer and bigger problem. Illegal immigrants from North east Pakistan (Present day Bangladesh) had started streaming into India fleeing from the tyranny under Pakistan’s rule. She didn't flinch when it came to taking tough decisions during the India-Pakistan war in 1971 that resulted in the liberation of Bangladesh. India's victory in December 1971 was hailed by all Indians as it came in the face of diplomatic opposition from both China and the United States. This was a huge boost for Indira.

But not everything was as good.
Having won the 1971 elections riding on the slogan of ”Garibi Hatao” Indira failed to remove poverty. The country experienced a severe drought in 1971 and 1972, leading to food shortages, and the price of food rose 20 percent in the spring of 1973. Oil prices quadrupled in 1973-74 and Unemployment and high Inflation was rampant.
The biggest blow to Indira came when the Allahabad high court in June 1975 found the prime minister guilty on the charge of misuse of government machinery for her election campaign. The court declared her election null and void and unseated her from her seat in the Lok Sabha. The court also banned her from contesting any election for an additional six years.

Jayaprakash (J.P) Narayan, a socialist leader in the preindependence Indian National Congress came out of retirement to lead what eventually became widely known as the "J.P. movement." Led by JP, Narayanan protestors flooded the streets of Delhi close to the Parliament building and the Prime Minister's residence. The Supreme court also found her guilty and ordered all privileges Gandhi received as an MP be stopped, and that she be debarred from voting. The next day, JP organised a large rally in Delhi, where he said that that a police officer must reject the orders of government if the order is immoral and unethical as this was Mahatma Gandhi's motto during the freedom struggle. Such a statement was taken as a sign of inciting rebellion in the country.
Within three hours, the electricity to all major newspapers was cut and the political-opposition arrested. Emergency had been declared throughout the country. The day after emergency was imposed, the Bombay edition of The Times of India carried an obituary that read "D.E.M O'Cracy beloved husband of T.Ruth, father of L.I.Bertie, brother of Faith, Hope and Justica expired on 26 June" A few days later censorship was imposed on newspapers. The Delhi edition of the Indian Express on 28 June, carried a blank editorial.

6th Lok Sabha Elections -1977

Indira Gandhi's rule during the Emergency alienated her popular support. After postponing elections for a year following the expiration of the five-year term of the Lok Sabha, she called for new elections in March 1977. The major opposition party leaders, many of whom had developed a rapport while they were imprisoned together under the Emergency regime, united under the banner of the Janata Party. By framing the key issue of the election as "democracy versus dictatorship," the Janata Party--the largest opposition party--appealed to the public's democratic values to rout the Congress (R). The vote share of the Congress (R) dropped to 34.5 percent, and the number of its seats in Parliament plunged from 352 to 154. Indira Gandhi lost her seat from Rai Brailey.

MORARJI DESAI

The Janata Party's 298 seats and its allies' 47 seats (of a total 542) gave it a massive majority. Morarji Desai became the first non-Congress Prime Minister of India.
The Janata split and split over the years but it had recorded an important landmark in the country political history: it was a coalition and proved that the Congress could be defeated.

CHARAN SINGH

7th Lok sabha elections – 1980

The Janata Party came into power riding the public anger against the Congress and the Emergency but its position was weak. The party held 270 seats in the Lok Sabha and it never quite had a firm grip on power. The inability of Janata Party factions to agree proved the party's undoing. Morarji Desai lost a trust vote in Parliament and resigned. Charan Singh, who had retained some partners of the Janata alliance, was sworn in as Prime Minister in June 1979. Not getting majority he called for elections in 1980. The fight between Janata Party leaders and the political instability in the country worked in favour of the Congress (I), which reminded voters of the strong government of Indira Gandhi. Indira Gandhi returned to win the January 1980 elections after forming a new party, the Congress (I--for Indira), in 1978.
The Congress (I)'s share of the vote increased by 8.2 percent to 42.7 percent of the total vote, and its number of seats in the Lok Sabha grew to 353, a majority of about two-thirds. This success approximated the levels of support of the Congress dominance from 1947 to 1967. Yet, as political scientist Myron Weiner observed, "The Congress party that won in 1980 was not the Congress party that had governed India in the 1950s and 1960s, or even the early 1970s. The party was organizationally weak and the electoral victory was primarily Mrs. Gandhi's rather than the party's."

8th Lok sabha Elections -1984

.....To be Continued